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Last year was the "spring" of steel companies, steel prices jumped to a high point, and the company's performance was mostly beautiful. However, in the first half of this year, due to the squeeze of the cost side, the performance of steel companies generally fell. On the evening of August 22, many steel stocks announced a semi-annual report, and the net profit fell by about 40%. The rise in raw material prices and weak downstream demand, coupled with environmental pressures, have made it difficult for steel companies in the first half of the year.
Steel companies' performance decline
On the evening of August 22, Baosteel Co., Shandong Steel and Bayi Iron & Steel announced the semi-annual report, and the performance of the group fell sharply. Baosteel Co., Ltd. is the leader of iron and steel enterprises. The operating income in the first half of the year was 140.876 billion yuan, down 5.16% year-on-year. The net profit was 6.187 billion yuan, down 38.19% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 9.437 billion yuan, down 51.53% year-on-year.
The semi-annual report released by Shandong Iron and Steel on the evening of 22nd showed that operating income was 32.355 billion yuan, an increase of 30.06% year-on-year, and net profit was only 577 million yuan, down 65.58% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was -199 million yuan, down 117.36% year-on-year.
Bayi Iron & Steel also increased revenues without increasing profits. Operating income in the first half of the year was 9.542 billion yuan, up 16.18% year-on-year. Net profit was only 124 million yuan, down 42.65% year-on-year. Net cash flow from operating activities was -3.68 billion yuan, down year-on-year. 146.47%.
Other steel companies have not been spared. Hanggang announced its semi-annual report in mid-August. The revenue for the first half of the year was 12.482 billion yuan, down 5.27% year-on-year, and net profit was 713 million yuan, down 38.32% year-on-year.
Although Angang Steel did not announce the semi-annual report, it announced its first-half performance forecast on July 12. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the first half of the year will be 1.45 billion yuan, down 67.3% year-on-year, and the profit for the same period last year was 4.441 billion yuan.
The sluggish performance was also accompanied by a decline in the company's share price. For Baosteel and Bayi Iron & Steel, the stock price reached a high point in 2018, but it fell in 2019. The other three 2018 results were not obvious in the capital market, and the stock price fluctuated.
Iron ore extrusion steel enterprise profit
In 2018, the steel industry experienced a round of "Xiaoyangchun". Since the supply-side reform of the steel industry in 2016, the prices of major steel products have shown a volatility upward trend. In the “13th Five-Year Plan”, it is required to reduce the production capacity of steel by 100 million to 150 million tons by 2020. By 2018, the task of resolving excess capacity will be completed ahead of schedule. The de-leverage and destocking of the steel industry have been realized. In the context of the supply-side reform in 2018, the steel industry also ushered in a wave of spring. From April to November 2018, steel prices as a whole entered the upward channel, basically reaching a high level of nearly eight years. The gross profit margin of steel products has increased, so the days of steel companies in 2018 are relatively good.
But after November 2018, the steel industry has entered a down cycle.
Major steel companies have explained the decline in the performance of the semi-annual report. The first is the conversion of supply and demand contradictions. The supply of major steel mills in the first half of the year has been exerted. The data released by the national statistical department shows that China’s steel production continued in the first half of 2019. Maintaining high output, China's pig iron, crude steel and steel production in January-June were 404 million tons, 492 million tons and 587 million tons respectively, up 7.9%, 9.9% and 11.4% respectively. However, the demand side is weak, such as construction industry, manufacturing industry, etc. The most representative automobile industry, the plate market represented by automobile panels is particularly depressed. In the first half of the year, domestic automobile production decreased by 13.7%. The market's sharp decline in demand for steel eventually led to a fall in steel prices.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, the profit of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 143.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%. This is also the reason for the increase in revenues of several steel companies but the decline in net profit.
In addition, in the upstream of the industry, the price of iron ore and coking coal has risen rapidly, increasing the operating costs of steel companies. As for the situation of Shandong Iron and Steel in the first quarter, due to the fall in steel prices and the surge in iron ore prices, the industry's earnings fell sharply. The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin fell back to 5.51% and 1.16% respectively.
Second half or better
Although the days of steel companies in the first half of 2019 were not good, steel companies have recently seen positive results. Since entering July, iron ore futures prices have shown a downward trend. As of August 22, the iron ore futures index fell nearly 30% in the past month, falling below the 600 yuan / ton mark.
In addition, coking coal futures prices have also been rising since 2016. Although the contract price of coking coal 2001 has been at a high level in the first half of this year, it has also shown a downward trend since August.
The senior analyst of SDIC Anxin Futures said that the iron ore market itself has little contradiction in its fundamentals, and the pricing attributes have returned to the weak. It is mainly affected by the price trend of black products such as finished materials. It is expected that the price of short-term iron ore will fluctuate. Consolidation is dominant.
The decline in upstream costs will be good for steel companies. In addition, local governments are also reducing steel overcapacity.
Baosteel Co., Ltd. also announced that due to the early repair of steel mills, the steel market supply in the fourth quarter is expected to increase slightly year-on-year. The downstream market demand is not expected to be fundamentally improved. The balance between supply and demand of cold-rolled products is prominent, and iron ore prices continue in the second half of the year. The upside is limited and the price fluctuation is expected to be large.
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