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Since the beginning of this year, China's economic development has faced a complicated and severe internal and external environment. Under this background, the situation of coal char in the second half of the year has received market attention. Market participants said that the steady growth of the economy in the second half of the year will not change, coal supply will gradually loosen, and price fluctuations will also ease.
Looking back at the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad this year, Bi Jiyao, vice president of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that protectionism, unilateralism and counter-globalization have increased interference with the global industrial chain, and global trade, investment, industrial production and other activities have been released. The slow-moving situation is more obvious, the economic and trade situation is further escalated, and the situation of the economic and trade industries such as the United States, Europe, the United States, Japan, Japan and South Korea is intensifying, and the external environmental instability of China's development has increased.
Judging from the domestic macro environment, he believes that the downward pressure on the economy in the first half of this year has increased, and the current downward pressure on the economy still exists. “At the demand side, the total retail sales of consumer goods have declined. In addition to a slight rebound in the manufacturing industry, the overall growth rate is at a low level, and the growth rate of foreign trade has dropped significantly.”
Li Wei, chairman of the China Coal Economic Research Association, said that under the current macro background, coal prices have remained within a reasonable range this year, but recent price volatility has intensified and downward pressure has increased. “In the first quarter, due to the safety accidents in the major coal-producing areas, coal was in a tight supply situation for a short period of time, and then the supply gradually recovered, but the demand was insufficiently driven and the prices fell rapidly.”
Despite the complicated and volatile international situation and the downward pressure on the domestic economy, Bi Jiyao said that the fundamentals of China's economic development and stability have not changed, the conditions for supporting production factors supporting high-quality development have not changed, and the overall momentum of long-term stability has not changed. There are still many favorable conditions for the economy to maintain long-term healthy and stable development. "In the near term, due to the accelerated implementation of measures such as tax reductions and fee reductions, the confidence of market players has continued to increase, domestic consumption and investment are expected to stabilize and rebound, foreign trade imports and exports continue to increase, and the momentum of steady economic growth in the second half of the year remains unchanged."
Li Wei also believes that the long-term trend of China's economy will not change, but it is necessary to pay close attention to the new situation in which the economic operation is stable and changeable.
Regarding the trend of the coal market in the second half of the year, Li Wei believes that coal is still the basic energy source of our country for a long time, but the increase and growth of short-term demand are different. “The transition from macroeconomic growth to high-quality development will further stimulate energy demand. It is expected that coal demand will continue to grow moderately throughout the year, and the amount of coal used in the chemical industry will also increase. Other coal-using industries may further develop with the increase in the management of loose coal. Contraction, but the overall increase maintains a growth trend. In terms of growth rate, due to the increase of domestic economic development uncertainty factors, scientific and technological progress, national governance of the atmospheric environment, energy conservation and emission reduction, non-fossil energy to coal replacement role continues to increase, coal demand The growth rate is bound to decline."
From the perspective of supply, he believes that the relative surplus of production capacity will become the normal state of the later coal market. "The railway department has actively implemented the requirements of 'adjusting the transportation structure', the railway transportation capacity has continued to increase, and the coal mine safety production facilities have been gradually improved, environmental protection facilities have been put in place, the capacity utilization rate has been further improved, and the quality of coal supply has been continuously improved."
In general, Li Wei believes that under the influence of factors such as accelerated production capacity release and improved transshipment capacity, the coal market supply will gradually shift to a looser direction. In the short term, it is necessary to pay close attention to the shortage of demand and the suppression of coal prices by high inventory levels.
Huang Li, deputy general manager of Chinalco International Trade, said that at present, China's coking coal market price is mainly affected by domestic production. It is expected that coke coal price volatility will slow down in the second half of the year, with a price increase of around 5%.
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